Catalog Record

Data and Report from S&T Project Number 1794: Identifying Sources of Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analyses

Reclamation partnered with scientists at NCAR to assess sensitivity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff modeling to support flood frequency analyses. Pieces of the modeling chain, including initial conditions, model parameters, precipitation inputs, and model structure were examined across a range of return intervals from 2-100,000 years. Two example watersheds representing different hydrologies in the 17 western states were used for this study. A stochastic hydrologic modeling workflow was developed using NCAR’s FUSE modeling framework. Results indicated that modeling chain pieces have variable uncertainty contributions across return periods. Results found that precipitation inputs are most important for rare events while initial conditions are important for frequent events; however, uncertainties from model structure and structure-parameter interactions still play a proportionally important role in results.
Generation Effort S&T Project 1794: Identifying Sources of Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analyses
Location Western US
Themes Water
Tags Flood-Frequency Analysis, Hydrologic Model Structures, Stochastic Methods, Uncertainty Analysis, Model Selection
Reclamation Project
Reclamation Program Science and Technology Program

Location Information

Location Name Western US
Location Description The 17 western states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona..
Location Tags Reclamation Domain
Location Parent
State(s) Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Unified Region(s) Missouri Basin, Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf, Upper Colorado Basin, Lower Colorado Basin, Columbia-Pacific Northwest, California-Great Basin
Timezone MT
Elevation [ N/A ]
Vertical Datum NAVD88
Coordinates (lat, long) See Location Details
Horizontal Datum WGS84