Catalog Record

Report from S&T Project 8117: Improving the reliability of southwestern US water supply forecasting

Recent decades have experienced strong trends in hydrometeorology in the western US with declining watershed runoff efficiency, which may be undermining the accuracy of conventional seasonal streamflow prediction methods that support water supply forecasts. There is a critical need to develop strategies to enhance the reliability of seasonal streamflow prediction methods so that they to continue to provide accurate, unbiased and reliable predictions by accounting for such variability. This project created an unusually detailed modeling and ESP prediction (hindcast) resource that helped to understand new strategies for water supply prediction in the Upper Rio Grande River basin. It was generated to have specific relevance to the URGWOM management model. A key finding from the project analysis is that ESP-based approaches to water supply volume disaggregation is likely to be viable as an operational strategy for Reclamation, and that ESP-based sequences were more on average more skillful than analog-based sequences. Additional analysis into climate predictability in the western US suggested that sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts may have the potential to offset streamflow predictability losses due to warming trends and declining snowpack.
Generation Effort S&T Project 8117: Improving the reliability of southwestern US water supply forecasting
Location Western US
Themes Water
Tags Water Modeling, Water Management Operations, Water Supply Forecasting, Climate Trends, Subseasonal To Seasonal (S2S) Prediction
Reclamation Project
Reclamation Program Science and Technology Program

Location Information

Location Name Western US
Location Description The 17 western states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona..
Location Tags Reclamation Domain
Location Parent
State(s) Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Unified Region(s) Missouri Basin, Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf, Upper Colorado Basin, Lower Colorado Basin, Columbia-Pacific Northwest, California-Great Basin
Timezone MT
Elevation [ N/A ]
Vertical Datum NAVD88
Coordinates (lat, long) See Location Details
Horizontal Datum WGS84