Catalog Record

Report from S&T Project 20032: An Experimental Monsoon Forecast for Water Management

This research has two main components: first, the predictability of monsoon season precipitation is characterized by evaluating the skill of monsoon weather types in forecast ensemble products. Second, we will investigate the potential usability by identifying monsoon forecasts of opportunity for water management and transferring them to a web-based experimental real-time forecast platform. Leveraging prior research and partnerships, the monsoon forecast is applied to regions in New Mexico and Arizona, but the process of defining weather types and developing an experimental forecast system can be extended to other Reclamation regions. Data and Code Availability: ERA-Interim data can be accessed from https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/, PRISM precipitation data from https://prism.oregonstate.edu/, and NMME seasonal hindcasts can be downloaded from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-multi-model-ensemble. Finally, the ECMWF-IFS hindcasts and forecasts can be accessed from https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts. The code for the statistical analysis and visualization of data in this report is openly available through GitHub (https://github.com/AndreasPrein/NAM_S2S_predictability).
Generation Effort Report from S&T Project 20032: An Experimental Monsoon Forecast for Water Management
Location Western US
Themes Water
Tags Monsoons, Weather Typing, Forecasting, Precipitation, New Mexico, Arizona, Predictability
Reclamation Project
Reclamation Program Science and Technology Program

Location Information

Location Name Western US
Location Description The 17 western states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona..
Location Tags Reclamation Domain
Location Parent
State(s) Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Unified Region(s) Missouri Basin, Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf, Upper Colorado Basin, Lower Colorado Basin, Columbia-Pacific Northwest, California-Great Basin
Timezone MT
Elevation [ N/A ]
Vertical Datum NAVD88
Coordinates (lat, long) See Location Details
Horizontal Datum WGS84