Reclamation Information Sharing Environment (RISE)

This research has two main components: first, the predictability of monsoon season precipitation is characterized by evaluating the skill of monsoon weather types in forecast ensemble products. Second, we will investigate the potential usability by identifying monsoon forecasts of opportunity for water management and transferring them to a web-based experimental real-time forecast platform. Leveraging prior research and partnerships, the monsoon forecast is applied to regions in New Mexico and Arizona, but the process of defining weather types and developing an experimental forecast system can be extended to other Reclamation regions. Data and Code Availability: ERA-Interim data can be accessed from https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/, PRISM precipitation data from https://prism.oregonstate.edu/, and NMME seasonal hindcasts can be downloaded from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-multi-model-ensemble. Finally, the ECMWF-IFS hindcasts and forecasts can be accessed from https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts. The code for the statistical analysis and visualization of data in this report is openly available through GitHub (https://github.com/AndreasPrein/NAM_S2S_predictability).